2025 Mid-Term Tracking Poll: Survey Shows 9 Alyansa, 2 PDP Laban and 1 Independent in Magic 12; Duterte Bets In Striking Position, May Surge When Block Voting Comes In; Bong Go, TitoSen Remain On Top

PULSO NG PILIPINO --- Some nine candidates from the pro-administration’s Alyansa ng Bagong Pilipinas showed their political grit by maintaining their standings in the Magic 12. making it to the Magic 12.

Joining them are two candidates from the PDP-Laban and one independent but political analysts from the Issues and Advocacy Center (The CENTER) that conducts the Pulso ng Pilipino survey say this current standings may not last for long once the effects of the political events in recent weeks begin to take traction and pulls the pro-Duterte senatorial bets into position for the surge going into the final stages of the campaign.

The latest non-commissioned Pulso ng Pilipino tracking poll was conducted on March 22 to 29, 2025 which effectively captured the events of recent weeks highlighted by the alleged illegal arrest and surrender of former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte and the Senate Hearing chaired by Sen. Imee Marcos that exposed several lapses in the manner the alleged warrant of arrest was served on the former President.

The survey polled some 1,800 respondents composed of registered voters nationwide with ages ranging from 18 years old to 65 years old and above and covered all social classes using the traditional MSAP or Multi Stage Area Probability Sampling method which is the norm that is commonly used by survey firms. The Pulso ng Pilipino survey is conducted by The CENTER and has been in existence since 1992 as an internal poll research organization during the administration of the late President Fidel V. Ramos.

Sen. Bong GO topped the latest Pulso ng Pilipino survey with 57.6%, up by 2.3% from the February survey of Pulso ng Pilipino. He is in a tie with former Senate President Vicente ‘Tito Sen’ Sotto III who polled 56.3%, down by a minuscule .02% which left him with enough steam to remain in a tie for top honors.

GO is running for reelection and is banking on the huge following of the Malasakit Center that provides financial and medical assistance to indigents as well as the Senator’s Sports para sa Masa program that promotes sports development in the countryside. The survey also showed that voters seem attracted to the self-less and down to earth brand of public service extended by GO whose office has assisted thousands of marginalized Filipinos with their medical and hospital needs.

Sotto, on the other hand, used his vast experience as a four-term Senator who was never absent nor late when the Senate was in session even during the pandemic. He will be gunning for a record-breaking five terms as an elected Senator of the country who boasts of some 259 laws that Sotto principally authored and sponsored which is regarded as unequalled in Senate history from the time of Quezon to the current Senate President Francis Escudero.

In sole third place with 51% is erstwhile leader Erwin Tulfo who shared top honors in the February survey and who still enjoys a large following owing to his media platform that is linked to the Act-CIS Party List that he represents. But his campaign for a Senate seat ran into some accountability problems with the voters with regards to his American citizenship.

In 4th position is Sen. Pilar Juliana ‘Pia’ CAYETANO with 47%. She is a lawyer by profession and is only one of five lawyers in the current 19th Senate. The other senators who are lawyers are: Senate President Chiz Escudero, Senate Minority Floor Leader Koko Pimentel, Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano and Sen. Francis ‘TOL’ TOLENTINO who is also running for reelection.

In 5th place is Sen. Manuelito ‘LITO’ LAPID with 46%, down by 2.1% from the February survey. Sharing the 6th to 7th spots are former Sen. Panfilo ‘PING’ LACSON with 43.3% and Sen. BONG REVILLA with 42.5%.

Many of the survey respondents frowned on the change of name of Revilla from his baptismal name as Ramon Bautista Jr. to RAMON BONG REVILLA with his erstwhile political name BONG REVILLA now accepted as his official surname which was done through a petition which a local court approved. His former surname BAUTISTA is now his middle name.

Sharing the 8th to 9th spots are Makati Mayor Abigail ‘ABBY’ BINAY with 38.7% and reelectionist Sen. Francis ‘TOL’ TOLENTINO with 37.5% up by 4.1% from the last PnP survey. BINAY will be remembered for instituting a transparent and fully accountable type of governance when she took over as Mayor of Makati.

TOLENTINO, on the other hand, gained traction in his campaign from his patronage of the 1st ROTC Games which gathered thousands of college students towards a regional competition aimed at the development of the academic, disciplinary and sports potential of today’s Filipino youths.

Three candidates share the 10th to 12th places. They are: Reelectionist Sen. Ronald ‘BATO’ DE LA ROSA, 35%, independent candidate Benjamin ‘BEN BITAG’ TULFO with 34.7%, and former Sen. Emmanuel ‘MANNY’ PACQUIAO with 31.5%, down by 4.5% from the last PnP survey. Again, similar to the negative sentiments of voters with regards to Bong Revilla, the present-day voters who are mostly from the youth sectors do not look kindly at the evident lack of experience of the boxing icon every time they watch in soc-med platforms the bumbling performance of Pacquiao at the Senate floor.

DELA ROSA’s ratings gained 3% from the PnP survey in February owing to the controversies surrounding the arrest and reverse extradition of the former President.

The other candidates who are within striking distance at 13th to 16th positions are: variety show host Willie ‘KUYA WIL’ REVILLAME with 30.1%. Las Pinas Rep. Camille VILLAR with 28% and, former Sen. Paolo Benigno ‘BAM’ AQUINO with 24.7%, up by an outstanding 8.7% from the 16% he posted in the last PnP survey and, former Sen. KIKO PANGILINAN with 24%.

Hugging the 17th to 19th places are: former DILG Secretary BENHUR ABALOS (23%), former Sen. GRINGO HONASAN (22.7%) and reelectionist Sen. IMEE MARCOS (22.5%). There are some self-proclaimed political pundits who claim that IMEE MARCOS will lose in the coming elections are either unaware of the electoral process or are simply ignorant of the factors that contribute to winning an election.

With almost a month before the scheduled May 12, 2025 polls, The CENTER said that even candidates in the 20th to 24th place bracket still have a chance of barging into the winning circle. Electoral victory, said The CENTER, is dependent on many factors primary of which is adequate funding to finance the so-called sample ballot operation.

This operation is not only about producing the needed sample ballots but hinges on the systematic distribution of these campaign paraphernalia and only a well-organized and well-oiled campaign organization can launch such an operation and make it count.

Occupying the 20th to 24th slots are: actor Philip ‘IPE’ SALVADOR (19.3%), Party List Rep. Rodante MARCOLETA (18.5%), Party List Rep. Bonifacio ‘COLONEL’ BOSITA (17.8%), lawyer James Patrick ‘JIMMY’ BONDOC (16.3%) and former Executive Secretary Vic RODRIGUEZ (15.9%). It will be recalled that Rodriguez was once the most rabid supporter of PBBM but who was unceremoniously ousted by a cabal of political operators inside the Office of the President.

With the ratings of the pro-administration Alyansa ng Bagong Pilipinas skidding and those of the pro-Duterte PDP-Laban bets developing into an upward spin, it will only be a matter of time before the Magic 12 is shaken to the core. The CENTER noted that the country and principally the voters are seemingly divided as information on the irregularity of the arrest and extradition of former President Duterte continues to flood the various social media platforms.

These social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Twitter X, Tiktok, and You Tube have now become the primary sources of uncensored information by the people as the mainstream media appeared to have been coopted by the administration and its backers.

Based on the pre-poll PnP survey conducted on March 22-29, 2025, there are nine pro-administration candidates who made it to the Magic 12. They are: Tito SOTTO (NPC), Erwin TULFO (Lakas-CMD), Lito LAPID (NPC), Ping LACSON (IND), BONG REVILLA (Lakas), Pia CAYETANO (NP), Abby BINAY (NPC), Manny PACQUIAO (PFP) and Tol TOLENTINO (PFP).

The three other senatorial candidates in the 2025 mid-term polls who belong to other parties are: BONG GO (PDP-Laban), Ben TULFO (IND), and Bato DELA ROSA (PDP-Laban).

During the face-to-face interviews, a skip interval method was employed with five to seven houses in between calls in thickly populated villages to obviate any bias in the responses. Selective interviews were conducted considering the demographic requirements such as gender, age and socio-eco classification as the main considerations. In such situations, proper physical distancing was still observed including disinfection of materials used.

Calls were checked back at random by the Team Leader to ensure accuracy of data entered on the call cover and interview pages. A unique feature of the PnP survey is its use of actual intelligence information on the ground that are collected from the so-called Listening Posts (LPs). This layered system of intelligence gathering developed during the previous Ramos presidential campaign is what ensures the accuracy of the Pulso ng Pilipino survey.

The PnP survey during the period covered shows the race for the Magic 12 remains tight as current political developments can influence the mindsets of voters going into the May 12, 2025 polls. Anything can happen and the rankings may still change depending on how the current issues are managed by both the Administration and the Opposition. # # #

Ed M. Malay

Director

The CENTER