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Isko Moreno to drop out of the Senate race,
readies bid for Manila hizzoner
Losing presidential contender and former Manila Mayor Francisco ‘Isko Moreno’ Domagoso is out of the Senate race. There are reliable reports that the celebrity politician has opted to seek anew the position of hizzoner of the City of Manila.
He will run against incumbent Manila Mayor Honey Lacuna. Moreno served as Mayor of Manila for one term after beating movie star and former President Joseph Estrada. Ms. Lacuna who was elected vice mayor in 2016 was Moreno’s vice mayoral candidate in the 2019 polls. Lacuna then ran for Mayor in 2022 when Moreno took that giant leap to seek the presidency in 2022.
Though Moreno currently enjoys a comfortable lead as shown in the recent pre-poll Pulso ng Pilipino survey of the Issues and Advocacy Center (The CENTER), it is generally admitted that in any election the incumbent enjoys a distinct advantage. The survey conducted on July 29 to August 10, 2024 covered all the six districts of Manila with 1,600 respondents culled from the city's registered voters in all the six districts. The results of the survey are shown below.
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ADMIN FIELDS POWERHOUSE TEAM
TULFO, DIGONG, SOTTO, BONG GO, BEN TULFO, PIA TAKE LEAD IN PULSO
NG PILIPINO 2025 PRE-POLL SURVEY; PACMAN, AGIMAT, BATO, TOLENTINO, IMEE, CAMILLE IN THE MAGIC 12
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PULSO NG PILIPINO --- Broadcaster and Party List Rep. Erwin Tulfo continues to hold on the lead in the latest pre-poll survey of The CENTER related to the scheduled senatorial polls on May 12, 2025. Tulfo posted a comfortable margin of five points to lead former President Rodrigo Roa Duterte, 53% to 48%, respectively.
Former Senate President Vicente Sotto III is in third position with 46% and he is tailed by Sen. Christopher Go ‘Bong Go’ in fourth position with 43% and is tied with another Tulfo – broadcaster Ben Tulfo who has an identical 43%.
Sen, Pia Juliana Cayetano is in solo sixth with 42% while Former Sen. Emmanuel Manny ‘Pacman’ Pacquiao is in seventh position with 40% in a tie with Sen. Ramon ‘Bong’ Revilla who is in eighth place with a similar 40%. Sen. Ronald ‘Bato’ dela Rosa is in ninth place with 38%, the same output posted by Sen. Francis ‘Tol’ Tolentino who also scored a similar 38%.
Sen. Maria Imelda ‘Imee” Marcos is in 11th place with 36% and Rep. Camille Villar whose tarps have become visible in all the corners of the length and breadth of the country is in 12th place with 34%.
Former Manila Mayor Francisco ‘Isko Moreno’ Domagoso who has been prominently mentioned as a sure winner in the Senate race has dropped out of the race and has opted to seek anew the position of Manila’s hizzoner. The withdrawal of Isko Moreno from the Senate race, although not made public yet, has created a stir in the race to the so-called Magic 12 in the 2025 senatorial elections.
This Pulso ng Pilipino H1 tracking poll randomly interviewed a total of 1,200 respondents nationwide and all were asked: “If the May 12, 2025 elections are to be held today, who among those in the list of senatorial candidates will you vote for. You can choose up to 12 names from the list.” (A showcard with the names of candidates were provided for the respondents to review and choose from.)
Despite the controversies related to the human rights cases lodged against him and being investigated by the International Criminal Court based in Geneva, Switzerland, Duterte remains highly popular in the four super regions.
The survey showed the former strongman posting 39% in the NCR, 42% in Luzon, 52% in the Visayas and as expected 61% in Mindanao which is considered as the political bailiwick of the former president.
Broadcaster Erwin Tulfo briefly lost the lead to the former President in the first quarter survey but regained it during the second quarter and in the current period in review. Sen. Bong Go who is in fourth rides on his ongoing medical assistance and sports development projects that is bankrolled by his office nationwide. The Malasakit Center which is backed up by the neophyte senator is now operable throughout the country has assisted thousands of indigent patients.
Political experts and The CENTER agree that the 2025 mid-term polls is by far the tightest senatorial elections in recent years. There are seven incumbents who are running for reelection namely, Senators Bong Go, Dela Rosa, Cayetano, Marcos, Tolentino, Revilla and Lito Lapid.
Senate Majority Floor Leader Sen. Tol Tolentino has been crisscrossing promoting the ROTC Games which he hopes will turn into a bedrock that will produce future Olympians. The popularity of the ROTC Games has caught up in recent months and is now being staged in almost all the major educational institutions in the country where ROTC is part of the curriculum.
The CENTER said an example of a senatorial aspirant who can give the incumbents a run for their money are Local Government Secretary Benhur Abalos and Las Pinas Rep. Camille Villar. Though it is mandated that presidential appointees must resign on or before the political hustings in February 2025, Abalos can still take advantage of his linkages with local government executives. Ms. Villar, on the other hand, is the favored daughter of the country’s richest man. Both Abalos and Vilar are included in the official senatorial ticket of the Marcos Administration.
Just to prove that next years’ polls could be a close contest is seen in the pre-poll survey where six senatorial candidates are in a statistical tie. Senator Bong Go and Ben Tulfo are tied at 43% apiece while Senators Manny Pacquiao and Bong Revilla are also tied at 40% and, Sen. Bato dela Rosa and Francis Tolentino are lumped at 38% apiece.
Ms. Villar (34%) is currently in 12th place and leads former Sen. Panfilo Lacson (33%) by just one point, and two points over Local Government Secretary Benhur Abalos and Sen. Lito Lapid who both posted identical 32% each. Makati Mayor Abigail Binay who is on her third and last term is in 16th place with 30% in a tie with variety show host Willie Revillame who also had 30% for 17th place. Cardiologist and popular retailer of sex enhancement products Doc Willie Ong is in 18th place with 28% and former Senator and losing vice presidential candidate Francisco ‘Kiko’ Pangilinan and former Vice President Maria Leonor ‘Leni’ Robredo who seems to have lost her political luster share the 20th spot with identical 27%. Former Sen. Antonio ‘Sonny’ Trillanes is in 21st place with 23% together with human rights lawyer Atty. Chel Diokno who also scored 23% which is good for the 22nd spot.
The chances of some of these senatorial candidates will largely depend on the realignment of forces beginning in October when the Commission on Elections (Comelec) begin accepting the Certificates of Candidacies for both national and local positions. Those who have been tapped to compose the pro-administration candidates in a coalition between the National People’s Coalition, the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas, Nacionalista Party, and Lakas-CMD will certainly enjoy an advantage, but the success of this coalition also depend largely on how its campaign will proceed.
As of this writing, The CENTER learned that the Marcos Administration has finalized its lineup for the 2025 mid-term senatorial polls and will field the following candidates. PFP – Manny Pacquiao, Benhur Abalos, Francis Tolentino; LAKAS – Bong Revilla, Erwin Tulfo; NPC – Tito Sotto, Ping Lacson, Lito Lapid, Abby Binay; NP – Pia Cayetano, Imee Marcos and Camille Villar.
The lineup may look like a powerhouse team, but it doesn’t mean this pro-administration ticket will just steamroll to victory in 2025. The mid-term poll is a good nine months away and there are a lot of variables that will come into play between now and E-Day. # # # (Ed Malay)
MARCOS, DUTERTE RATINGS TUMBLE DOWN; LOWEST RATING FOR A SENATE PRESIDENT IN RECENT YEARS.
HOUSE SPEAKER MARTIN ROMUALDEZ, SUPREME COURT CHIEF JUSTICE ALEXANDER GESMUNDO SAVE THE DAY FOR THE ADMINISTRATION THAT IS SADDLED BY CONTROVERSIES.
PULSO NG PILIPINO ---- The stark contrast between the massive flooding in Metro Manila and the environs at the height of Typhoon Carina and the boastful pronouncement of the government’s imaginary flood-control projects made by President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos during his third State of the Nation Address provided the backdrop that caused the overall ratings of the President to dive to its lowest level in three years.
This was compounded by what The Issues and Advocacy Center (The CENTER) viewed as a government being run through rhetoric made even worst by the many issues and controversies surrounding the presidency particularly with regards to the alleged use of illegal substances by prominent personalities close to the president.
As tension remain high at the West Philippine Sea, majority of Filipinos are also wary of the possibility that the Philippines could be used as a pawn in the proxy war between the United States and China. With China deploying more ships in the disputed waters, the US has stationed several heavy armaments particularly the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System or HIMARS.
There are at least nine sites under the ambit of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement or EDCA throughout the country and there are fears that these nine EDCA sites will be the initial targets once an armed conflict arises between the two superpowers.
In the most recent survey conducted by The CENTER on July 29 to August 7, 2024 covering the first half of the current year, the President’s performance rating skidded to 42% compared to the president’s performance rating of 46% recorded in the survey conducted by The CENTER in the second quarter conducted on June 10 to 17, 2024. The trust rating of President Marcos also tumbled down to 47% during the period in review compared to the 58% that the president registered in The CENTER’s second quarter survey.
At the same time, the ratings of Vice President Inday Sara Duterte also plummeted as her resignation from the Cabinet caused anxiety from among Filipinos who are afraid that an open conflict albeit political between the country’s top two officials will be counterproductive. Duterte may have thought of that old adage “quit while you’re ahead” as she tendered her resignation from her post in the Cabinet as Education Secretary while her numbers are up. But such assumptions offered a sharp contrast between the Vice President’s second quarter ratings and the recent survey of The CENTER which placed Duterte’s performance and trust ratings at 44% and 43%, respectively, compared to the 52% and 63%, respectively, that the VP recorded in the second quarter.
The non-commissioned Pulso ng Pilipino H1 tracking poll was conducted on July 29 to August 7, 2024 with 1,200 respondents nationwide from among the country’s registered voters. The norm used in the survey was the widely used standard MSAP or the multi-stage area probability sampling method. A skip interval of five to seven houses in between calls in thickly populated villages was also followed to obviate any bias in the responses. The Pulso ng Pilipino survey which is a public service of The CENTER has a margin of error of 3% and a confidence level in excess of 98%.
Selective interviews were made considering the demographic requirements such as gender, age and socio eco classification as the main considerations. To ensure the accuracy of the sampling results, calls were checked back at random by the team leader and a unique layered system of review that The CENTER has devised and proven accurate since it was used during the 1992 presidential campaign of the late President Fidel V. Ramos.
Pre-poll surveys were still on its infantile stage in those years, but it became an important component of the Ramos presidential campaign with Crystal Research headed by Col. Simeon Ventura doing most of the political poll research for FVR who ran and was eventually elected as the 12th President of the Philippines. FVR depended largely on what the surveys show which dictated the tempo of his campaign.
The FVR presidential campaign also gave birth to The CENTER and was made part of the Ramos Media Bureau that also provided some inputs that tracked the progress of the Ramos presidential campaign. In addition, the FVR campaign also made use of research culled from the Social Weather Station which was also starting to create a mark in this field as well as the political survey research group from the Ateneo de Manila University.
In its most recent survey, House Speaker Ferdinand Martin Romualdez and Supreme Court Chief Justice Alexander Gesmundo provided the spark that saved the day for the Marcos Administration with Romualdez generating a performance rating of 44% and a trust rating of 58%. These were two percent and 11% higher than the performance and trust ratings, respectively, of the president. The ratings of the House Speaker were considerably higher than those of the Vice President. Supreme Court Chief Justice Alexander Gesmundo’s posted a net performance rating of 47% and a trust rating of 61% for the first half of 2024.
A stark contrast even to the low ratings posted by the country’s top two officials is the seeming inability of Senate President Francis ‘Chiz’ Escudero to rise to the occasion of getting elected by his peers to the third highest position in the land. The CENTER survey for the period in review shows Escudero posting a performance rating of 36% and a trust rating of 28%. These are the lowest ratings ever recorded by a Senate President.
The only plausible explanation said The CENTER, is probably related to the posturing of Escudero and lack of a clear political conviction which failed to endear him to the voters primary of which was his denial that Malacanang had nothing to do with the leadership change in the Senate. The CENTER said it is politically inconceivable that the third and fourth highest position in the land will undergo a leadership change without the imprimatur of the president. # # #